The International Energy Agency (IEA) has raised alarms over growing risks of supply disruptions in global critical mineral markets, citing increasing market concentration and tightening export restrictions in its report released Wednesday.
⚠️ Key Takeaways from the IEA Report
🔄 Market Concentration a Major Risk
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The average market share of the top three refined material suppliers is expected to remain above 80% through 2035, only marginally down from current levels.
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China, the global refining powerhouse, is expected to further consolidate its lead, expanding capacity faster than the rest of the world.
🔋 Energy Transition Fuels Demand Surge
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Demand for critical minerals is booming, driven by the global shift to clean energy technologies such as:
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Electric vehicles
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Battery storage
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Renewables
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Power grid infrastructure
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🧯 High Risk of Supply Shocks
“Even in a well-supplied market, critical mineral supply chains can be highly vulnerable to supply shocks,” said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol.
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Risks include:
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Extreme weather events
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Technical failures
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Geopolitical or trade disruptions
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Supply shocks can lead to higher consumer prices and reduced industrial competitiveness globally.
🚫 Export Controls Add Pressure
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Export restrictions on key minerals like lithium, cobalt, nickel, and rare earths are rising, further aggravating supply chain risks.
🪨 Sector-Wise Outlook
| Mineral | Concentration Trend | Key Risk |
|---|---|---|
| Copper | High | 30% supply shortfall by 2035 due to lower ore grades, rising costs |
| Nickel & Cobalt | High | Persistent concentration and low diversification |
| Lithium, Graphite, Rare Earths | Easing | More favorable outlook for new project development |
🔄 Battery Recycling: China Dominates
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China has driven two-thirds of global battery recycling capacity growth since 2020, adding another layer of concentration risk in the downstream supply chain.
📉 Long-Term Implications
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Without diversification, the global push toward a clean energy future could be derailed by volatile mineral prices and supply bottlenecks.
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Countries and companies may need to rethink strategies around mining investment, recycling, and international trade partnerships.
Conclusion
The IEA’s latest report is a wake-up call for policymakers, industries, and investors: critical mineral supply chains are dangerously exposed. To secure the future of the energy transition, the world must prioritize diversification, transparency, and resilience in mineral sourcing and processing.
