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PSX Struggles Amid Budget Uncertainty as KSE-100 Recovers From Early Dip

Khashif Sarfraz
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PSX Struggles Amid Budget Uncertainty as KSE-100 Recovers From Early Dip

The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) opened Friday’s session on a bearish note, with the KSE-100 Index falling over 400 points in early trading. However, by midday, the index managed to recover most of the losses, hovering at 119,140.92 points, down just 12.12 points or 0.01%.

Despite the rebound, the market remained under pressure amid growing uncertainty surrounding the upcoming federal budget, particularly regarding the IMF-mandated tax reforms.

Key Sectoral Impact

Heavy selling pressure was observed in several index-heavy sectors, including:

  • Automobile assemblers

  • Commercial banks

  • Oil and gas exploration

  • Oil marketing companies (OMCs)

  • Power generation and distribution

Notable stocks trading in red included HUBCO, PSO, SSGC, MARI, OGDC, PPL, POL, UBL, and NBP.

On Thursday, the benchmark index had already lost 778 points (0.65%), closing at 119,153, as investors remained cautious ahead of key fiscal decisions.

Investor Sentiment & Budget Worries

Analysts attribute the market’s nervousness to concerns over possible new taxes in the upcoming federal budget, which is reportedly being drafted under the guidance of the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Uncertainty over the government’s economic roadmap and fears of burdensome fiscal tightening have led investors to cut risk exposure, driving the sell-off in major sectors.

Global Market Overview

Meanwhile, Asian shares posted modest gains on Friday. The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index (excluding Japan) rose 0.1%, although it remained down 0.4% for the week—its first weekly loss after five consecutive weeks of gains.

In the U.S., Treasury markets found support after longer-duration bonds appeared attractively priced, despite growing worries about fiscal sustainability. The House of Representatives narrowly passed a tax bill, adding to concerns about the rising U.S. debt, which now stands at $36.2 trillion, with projections of a $3.8 trillion increase over the next decade.

Moody’s recently downgraded the U.S. credit rating, further pressuring yields. Still, 30-year U.S. Treasury yields edged down to 5.037%, from a recent 19-month high.

Conclusion

While the KSE-100 Index showed some resilience by paring early losses, market sentiment remains fragile amid domestic budget uncertainty and global financial headwinds. Investors are expected to stay cautious until more clarity emerges regarding fiscal policy, taxation, and macroeconomic direction in the upcoming federal budget.

Dr. Ashfaque Urges Depoliticisation of NFC Award and Balanced Resource Allocation

Khashif Sarfraz
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Dr. Ashfaque Urges Depoliticisation of NFC Award and Balanced Resource Allocation

Renowned economist Dr. Ashfaque Hassan Khan has recommended a comprehensive overhaul of Pakistan’s National Finance Commission (NFC) award process, calling for its depoliticisation and a revised distribution formula that reduces overreliance on population as the dominant factor.

In his recently released report titled “NFC Award and Population: Has It Distorted Pakistan’s Population?”, Dr. Ashfaque argues for a technocratic approach to the NFC by appointing non-political experts and introducing a more equitable, need-based distribution mechanism.

Current Structure of the NFC Award

Under Article 180 of the Constitution, the President of Pakistan constitutes a Finance Commission every five years. Historically, the distribution of resources between the federal and provincial governments—and among provinces—has been heavily skewed toward population, which has had distortionary effects.

From 1974 to 2009, 100% of resource allocation was based solely on population. The 7th NFC Award in 2010 introduced new variables:

  • Poverty and backwardness

  • Revenue collection

  • Inverse population density

However, population still retained 82% weight, keeping it the overwhelmingly dominant criterion.

Key Recommendations in the Report

  1. Depoliticisation of the NFC

    • Appoint technocrats and non-political experts to the Commission.

    • Establish a dedicated secretariat with professional staff to support research and administration.

  2. Revised Resource Distribution Formula

    • Reduce population weight from 82% to 25%:

      • 15% based on 1998 census

      • 10% based on 2023 census

    • Introduce income gap as the primary indicator with 30% weight:

      • Provinces with lower income compared to the richest province would receive more funds to reduce disparities.

  3. Dynamic Terms of Reference (TOR)

    • Government to define TOR at the start of each Commission term, allowing flexibility based on national priorities.

    • Enable the Commission to adjust criteria and weights accordingly.

Why Reform Is Needed

Dr. Ashfaque strongly criticises the current population-centric model, suggesting it has:

  • Distorted census incentives, potentially encouraging provinces to inflate numbers.

  • Discouraged structural reforms, especially in untaxed sectors, due to dependency on federal transfers.

  • Impeded balanced development, failing to address regional inequality.

Conclusion

Reforming the NFC award by reducing political interference and adopting a fair, need-based, and dynamic distribution mechanism could be a game-changer for Pakistan’s fiscal federalism. Dr. Ashfaque’s proposals offer a technocratic roadmap for ensuring more equitable development across provinces, encouraging fiscal responsibility, and restoring trust in the system.

U.S. to Eliminate Penny by 2026: Historic Currency Shift to Save $56 Million Annually

Khashif Sarfraz
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U.S. to Eliminate Penny by 2026: Historic Currency Shift to Save $56 Million Annually

In a landmark policy shift, the U.S. Treasury Department has confirmed it will cease production of the penny by early 2026, putting an end to a coin that has been in circulation since 1793.

The move follows a directive issued by President Donald Trump in February 2025 and has gained bipartisan support in Congress, signaling a rare political consensus on a longstanding economic debate.

“For far too long the United States has minted pennies which literally cost us more than 2 cents. This is so wasteful!” President Trump said in a social media post, citing figures that put the cost of minting a penny at 3.6 cents—more than triple its face value.

Economic Rationale Behind the Decision

The Treasury estimates that halting penny production will save taxpayers approximately $56 million annually. Officials confirmed that the final shipment of penny blanks has been ordered, and the U.S. Mint will only produce coins using the remaining inventory.

Once the current stock is exhausted:

  • No new pennies will be minted.

  • Existing coins will remain legal tender and can still be used in transactions.

Rounding and Retail Impacts

With the penny being phased out, cash transactions will be rounded to the nearest five cents. However, electronic payments will remain unaffected, allowing for precise pricing in digital purchases.

Retailers and banks are expected to adjust smoothly, as Canada, Australia, and New Zealand have already adopted similar policies, eliminating their lowest-denomination coins with minimal disruption.

Legislative Backing

Two bipartisan bills—The Make Sense Not Cents Act and The Common Cents Act—have been introduced in Congress to solidify the penny’s retirement in law. These bills reflect a growing consensus that the coin is economically obsolete in an increasingly digital and card-based economy.

Public and Expert Opinions

Supporters of the move argue that:

  • Pennies are often wasted, lost, or stored in drawers.

  • Digital payments now dominate, reducing reliance on small coins.

  • Taxpayer money can be better allocated elsewhere.

However, some economists, charitable organizations, and traditionalists oppose the change, arguing:

  • Pennies help maintain pricing accuracy, especially in cash-heavy economies.

  • Donation drives often rely on low-denomination coins.

  • Removing pennies may increase reliance on more expensive coins, such as the nickel, which now costs nearly 14 cents to produce.

Historical Context

The penny, first introduced in 1793, has featured President Abraham Lincoln’s profile since 1909 and holds sentimental value for many Americans. But as inflation and digital payment systems reshape modern economics, its practical use has sharply declined.

There are currently an estimated 114 billion pennies in circulation.

What’s Next?

  • No new pennies will be made after early 2026.

  • The U.S. Mint will continue producing nickels, although concerns about their rising cost remain.

  • Policymakers may next evaluate the cost-efficiency of other denominations.

The U.S. now joins a growing list of countries that have phased out low-value coins in favor of economic efficiency and modernized transaction systems.

India Pushes FATF to Greylist Pakistan Again Amid Renewed Tensions

Khashif Sarfraz
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India Pushes FATF to Greylist Pakistan Again Amid Renewed Tensions

India is preparing to urge the Financial Action Task Force (FATF)—the global watchdog for financial crimes and terror financing—to re-add Pakistan to its grey list, according to a senior Indian government source on Friday.

The move comes amid escalating tensions between the two nuclear-armed neighbors, as India also plans to oppose upcoming World Bank funding for Pakistan. This development signals a potential setback for Pakistan’s fragile economy, which is still navigating recovery after years of financial strain.

FATF Grey List: Why It Matters

The FATF grey list includes countries that are actively working with the body to address deficiencies in their regimes to counter money laundering, terrorist financing, and proliferation financing. Being on the list subjects countries to increased monitoring and scrutiny, which often deters investment and complicates international financial transactions.

Pakistan was removed from the grey list in 2022, a move that significantly improved its global financial standing and gave it greater access to international lenders such as the IMF and World Bank.

Reinstatement to the grey list could derail much-needed financial support and impact the country’s ability to stabilize its economy, especially with ongoing inflation and foreign reserve challenges.

Geopolitical Undercurrents

India’s renewed push to scrutinize Pakistan’s commitments to FATF recommendations comes amid strained bilateral relations, exacerbated by border disputes, cross-border tensions, and accusations related to terror financing.

The Indian government’s stance also extends to the World Bank, where it will oppose new funding initiatives for Pakistan, citing concerns over compliance with international anti-money laundering and counter-terrorism protocols.

Regional and Economic Impact

If Pakistan is re-added to the grey list:

  • Loan disbursements from international lenders could be delayed or revised.

  • Investor confidence may wane, leading to further economic pressure.

  • It may impact regional stability, particularly in South Asia’s financial markets.

What’s Next?

The FATF plenary meetings, held periodically to assess country-level compliance, will be closely watched by global markets, especially emerging economies. Meanwhile, the World Bank’s funding decisions may face geopolitical pushback as financial aid and development projects come under greater scrutiny.

European Stocks Climb as Bond Yields Ease and Economic Data Surprises

Khashif Sarfraz
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European Stocks Climb as Bond Yields Ease and Economic Data Surprises

European stocks edged higher on Friday, buoyed by a dip in bond yields and stronger-than-expected economic data that helped improve investor sentiment. The pan-European STOXX 600 index gained 0.2% by 0843 GMT, on track for a sixth consecutive week of gains.

Key Index Highlights

  • Germany’s DAX rose 0.5%, hovering near record highs after revised data revealed that the German economy grew more than initially estimated in Q1. The index continues to benefit from investor optimism around government plans to ramp up infrastructure and defense spending.

    “The DAX has been a bright spot in global markets this year,” noted Russ Mould, Investment Director at AJ Bell, highlighting Germany’s appeal for value investors versus US equities.

  • The UK’s FTSE 100 rose 0.4%, supported by an unexpectedly strong retail sales report for April, signalling consumer resilience in the face of inflationary pressures.

Market Context

Earlier this week, stock markets came under pressure from surging US Treasury yields, which reignited concerns over the US’s growing debt burden. However, markets regained footing as yields retreated following the US House of Representatives’ approval of a major tax and spending bill backed by President Donald Trump.

Additionally, business surveys in May had signalled economic weakness in the euro zone, but resilient corporate earnings and Trump’s decision to pause new tariffs on key trading partners helped boost investor confidence.

Notable Stock Movements

  • AJ Bell surged 6.9% after the UK-based investment platform reported a 12% year-over-year increase in pre-tax profit, driven by rising client engagement.

  • Michelin gained 0.8% following an upgrade to “buy” by Jefferies, which cited strong earnings growth potential for the French tire manufacturer.

  • Games Workshop, the British maker of miniature wargames like Warhammer, fell 3.8% after Peel Hunt downgraded the stock, projecting a £10 million hit from US tariffs.

Outlook

The easing of bond yields across both the US and Europe provided breathing room for equity markets, but underlying risks remain. From ongoing US fiscal tensions to potential tariff escalations, investors are advised to remain cautiously optimistic.

Nevertheless, Europe’s relatively lower valuations, strong corporate earnings, and government stimulus efforts continue to underpin a positive medium-term outlook for regional equities.

Pakistani Rupee Gains Marginally Against US Dollar Amid Global Dollar Weakness

Khashif Sarfraz
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Pakistani Rupee Gains Marginally Against US Dollar Amid Global Dollar Weakness

The Pakistani rupee (PKR) showed a slight improvement against the US dollar on Friday, appreciating by 0.1% in the inter-bank market. At 10 a.m., the local currency was trading at 281.78 PKR per USD, marking a gain of Re0.28 compared to Thursday’s close of 282.06.

Global Factors Impacting the Dollar

The US dollar was generally soft on Friday, positioned to register its first weekly decline in five weeks against major currencies such as the euro and Japanese yen. This decline comes amid growing concerns over the United States’ fiscal health, which have prompted investors to seek safer assets.

The focus remains on the US’s massive $36 trillion debt and a recently passed, but contentious, tax bill pushed by President Donald Trump. The bill, described by Trump as a “big, beautiful bill,” has narrowly passed the Republican-controlled House of Representatives and is now set for a potentially lengthy debate in the Senate.

Market Movements and Indicators

The dollar index, which tracks the US dollar against six major currencies including the euro and yen, is poised to fall about 1.1% for the week, though it remained relatively steady at 99.829 during early Asian trading.

Despite this, US Treasury yields remained elevated, with the 30-year bond yield hovering above 5%, near a 19-month high and close to the October 2023 peak of 5.179%. A rise above this level would mark the highest yields since mid-2007.

Oil Prices and Currency Impact

Oil prices, a key factor influencing currency movements, slipped on Friday amid a stronger US dollar and expectations that OPEC+ may increase crude output.

  • Brent crude futures fell by 37 cents to $64.07 per barrel.

  • US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures declined by 39 cents to $60.81 per barrel.

For the week, Brent was down by 2%, while WTI dropped 2.7%.

Because oil is priced in US dollars globally, a stronger dollar makes oil more expensive for buyers using other currencies, often causing inverse price movements between the two.

K-Electric Seeks Rs5.02/Unit Tariff Relief in March 2025 Fuel Cost Adjustment

Khashif Sarfraz
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K-Electric Seeks Rs5.02/Unit Tariff Relief in March 2025 Fuel Cost Adjustment

K-Electric (KE) consumers may soon benefit from a tariff relief of Rs5.02 per unit on account of the Fuel Cost Adjustment (FCA) for March 2025, pending approval from the National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (Nepra). The relief was requested by KE in a recent petition and discussed during a public hearing held on Thursday.

If Nepra approves the petition, KE consumers will collectively enjoy a total relief of approximately Rs6.79 billion.

Nepra’s Review and KE’s Operational Challenges

During the hearing, Nepra scrutinized KE’s claims related to operational costs, fuel consumption, system efficiency, and the ongoing battle against electricity theft in Karachi.

KE’s CEO, Moonis Alvi, stressed the company’s commitment to eradicating power theft but highlighted the serious security threats and violent resistance faced by KE staff, including female employees. He cited recent violent mob attacks in areas like P&T Colony and Nazimabad, where even law enforcement struggled to safely protect KE workers.

Alvi revealed disturbing incidents where employees were held hostage overnight by mobs, urging citizens to stop electricity theft and at least begin paying their previous month’s bills to ease the utility’s burden.

Load Shedding, Infrastructure Damage, and Disconnections

KE reported that 70% of its feeders remain exempt from load shedding, while areas plagued by electricity theft and non-payment continue to experience scheduled outages.

Infrastructure damage due to theft contributes significantly to network faults, leading to ongoing disconnection drives in theft-prone localities. KE emphasized that such disconnections are a result of non-payment, not system faults, despite public backlash including mob violence.

Fuel Costs, Stock, and Generation Concerns

Nepra questioned KE’s Rs14 billion generation cost claim and sought detailed month-wise breakdowns, which KE promised to provide.

Concerns were raised about the Rs5 billion furnace oil stock for the Bin Qasim Power Station-I (BQPS-I), which has a 350 MW capacity but reportedly is not operational. Nepra asked why KE continues to plan power generation based on residual fuel oil (RFO).

KE clarified that maintaining the fuel stock is a regulatory requirement and selling it at a loss is not viable.

Future of Generation Mix: Solar Power and Fuel Sources

Industrialist Rehan Javed urged for the inclusion of solar power projects in the upcoming Indicative Generation Capacity Expansion Plan (IGCEP), dismissing rumors that solar had been excluded. Nepra confirmed no formal decision on IGCEP had been made and assured that public hearings will precede any conclusions.

On fuel mix, KE officials noted that greater access to local natural gas, priced at Rs9 per unit, could substantially reduce generation costs compared to more expensive re-gasified liquefied natural gas (RLNG) priced at Rs22-24 per unit.

Comparisons and Future Outlook

Nepra highlighted that KE’s FCA is currently benchmarked against the reference fuel cost of Rs15.99 per unit from March 2023, and with tariff updates, FCA differences between KE and other DISCOs are expected to narrow.

Both Nepra and KE stressed the importance of transparency, regulatory compliance, and cooperation to improve electricity service, especially during the peak summer demand period.

Pakistani Rupee Hits 17-Month Low Amid Rising Imports; Gold Prices Retreat After Rally

Khashif Sarfraz
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Pakistani Rupee Hits 17-Month Low Amid Rising Imports; Gold Prices Retreat After Rally

The Pakistani rupee (PKR) has fallen to a 17-month low, closing at Rs282.06 against the US dollar in the interbank market on Thursday, May 22, 2025. The local currency depreciated by 0.03%, or Rs0.09, from Wednesday’s close of Rs281.97. This marks its weakest level since December 27, 2023, underscoring rising concerns over the country’s external balance.

“PKR falls 0.10% DoD against USD, closing at 282.06 (level last seen on 27-Dec-2023),” reported Arif Habib Limited (AHL).

Rising Import Pressure Strains the Rupee

According to Sana Tawfik, Head of Research at AHL, the decline was largely driven by an uptick in import activity, increasing demand for the US dollar.

“The uptick in import activity has increased dollar demand, weighing on the rupee,” she noted.

Despite IMF disbursements strengthening State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) reserves, the rupee remains under pressure. Year-to-date (CYTD), the rupee has depreciated by 1.25%, while it is down 1.32% in FYTD and 0.39% MTD, reflecting a delicate balance between financial inflows and dollar outflows.

Foreign Reserves Bolstered by IMF Inflow

Amid the rupee’s depreciation, Pakistan’s total liquid foreign exchange reserves rose to $16.65 billion as of May 16, 2025, according to SBP data. This includes:

  • $11.45 billion held by SBP

  • $5.20 billion held by commercial banks

The sharp increase of $1.043 billion in SBP reserves was largely due to the receipt of the second tranche of the IMF’s Extended Fund Facility (EFF), amounting to SDR760 million (approx. $1.023 billion), received on May 13.

According to Ismail Iqbal Securities, this marks the highest SBP reserve level since December 2024. Still, CYTD reserves are down $264 million, reflecting ongoing adjustments tied to broader economic reforms.

Gold Prices Drop Amid Global Correction

Domestically, gold prices declined on Thursday, tracking a global downturn as the US dollar strengthened and investors booked profits. According to the All-Pakistan Gems and Jewellers Sarafa Association (APGJSA):

  • Gold per tola dropped by Rs1,900 to Rs347,500

  • 10 grams of gold fell by Rs1,629 to Rs297,925

The correction follows a sharp surge of Rs6,600 per tola a day earlier.

Globally, spot gold fell 0.4% to $3,301.37/oz, while US gold futures mirrored the same decline. The dollar index rose 0.3%, making gold more expensive for international buyers.

“The market hit a high of $3,345 before retreating to a low of $3,280,” said Adnan Agar, Director at Interactive Commodities. “Currently, it’s hovering around $3,294 after facing strong resistance.”

Conclusion

The decline of the Pakistani rupee and the correction in gold prices reflect broader macroeconomic dynamics, including:

  • Rising import demand

  • Volatile global commodity markets

  • Strengthening US dollar

  • Dependence on IMF support

As Pakistan navigates economic reforms and external pressures, exchange rate stability and commodity pricing will remain key indicators to monitor in the months ahead.

Pakistan Targets $100 Million in Mango Exports Despite Climate Challenges

Khashif Sarfraz
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Pakistan Targets $100 Million in Mango Exports Despite Climate Challenges

Pakistan is gearing up to export 125,000 tonnes of mangoes in the upcoming 2025 season, with shipments scheduled to commence on May 25, according to the Pakistan Fruit and Vegetable Exporters Association (PFVA). If successful, this initiative could generate $100 million in foreign exchange, a substantial increase from last year’s exports of 100,000 tonnes.

Climate Change Threatens Mango Output

While the export target is ambitious, climate change and water scarcity threaten to undermine this goal. PFVA Patron-in-Chief Waheed Ahmed revealed that mango production may decline by up to 20% this year. He stated:

“There is a risk of up to 20% reduction in total mango production this year as well.”

Historically, Pakistan produces around 1.8 million tonnes of mangoes annually, with Punjab contributing 70%, Sindh 29%, and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa just 1%. However, this season’s output could fall to 1.4 million tonnes, driven by environmental stressors.

Expanding into New Global Markets

Despite domestic challenges, the PFVA is working to expand mango exports beyond traditional markets. While continuing to serve established buyers, the focus is now shifting to non-traditional markets including:

  • Japan

  • United States

  • South Korea

  • Australia

  • China

  • Turkey

Excitingly, South Africa is also expected to open its market to Pakistani mangoes this season, with quarantine officials scheduled to inspect facilities in Pakistan soon.

Call for Reforms and Innovation in Agriculture

Ahmed stressed the urgent need for provincial-level reforms, calling for:

  • Improved water management systems

  • Development of climate-resilient mango varieties

  • Investment in research and development (R&D)

  • Modernisation of agriculture and horticulture infrastructure

“Climate change is a serious challenge facing agriculture… there’s a pressing need for better policies, technology, and investment,” Ahmed emphasized.

He also pointed out that rising export costs and regional tensions are making it more difficult for exporters to stay competitive in the global market.

Conclusion

As Pakistan aims to secure a larger share of the international mango market, success hinges not just on hitting export targets, but on addressing the broader challenges of climate change, infrastructure modernization, and market diversification. With timely government support and innovation, the 2025 mango season could mark a turning point for the country’s fruit export landscape.

Illicit Cigarette Trade Soars in Pakistan: IPOR Report Uncovers Regulatory Crisis

Khashif Sarfraz
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Illicit Cigarette Trade Soars in Pakistan: IPOR Report Uncovers Regulatory Crisis

In a shocking revelation, the Institute for Public Opinion and Research (IPOR) has highlighted the massive scale of illegal cigarette sales in Pakistan, exposing critical enforcement failures in the tobacco industry. Unveiled during a press conference in Lahore, the report underscores how over 54% of cigarette brands violate national laws, especially concerning Graphical Health Warnings (GHWs) and the Track and Trace System (TTS).

Widespread Violations Despite Existing Legislation

Tariq Junaid, Executive Director of IPOR, revealed that despite the enforcement of GHWs in 2009 and TTS in 2022, compliance remains dangerously low:

  • 286 brands are openly sold without graphical health warnings

  • Only 19 out of 413 cigarette brands are compliant with TTS

  • 394 brands lack required tax stamps

The study, based on a survey of 1,520 retail outlets across 19 districts, found that 332 brands are being sold below the legal minimum price of Rs162.25, with some priced as low as Rs40 — indicating rampant tax evasion and illegal trade.

Massive Revenue Losses and Public Health Concerns

According to IPOR’s findings:

  • 55% of illicit cigarettes are produced locally without paying taxes

  • 45% are smuggled into Pakistan

  • The estimated annual loss to the national exchequer exceeds Rs300 billion

This uncontrolled spread of illegal cigarette brands not only undermines public health policies but also creates unfair competition for legitimate businesses and drains national revenue.

Why the System Is Failing

Junaid explained that every increase in tobacco taxes, without enforcement, benefits illegal manufacturers and smugglers, as consumers turn to cheaper, unregulated brands. He criticized the government’s lack of action:

“This is not just a regulatory failure — it’s a legal and economic crisis,” he emphasized.

Recommendations for Immediate Action

To combat the illegal cigarette trade, IPOR calls on the government to:

  • Intensify monitoring of retail shops nationwide

  • Ensure full enforcement of TTS and GHWs across all manufacturers

  • Crack down on the illicit trade through coordinated, nationwide efforts

  • Penalize non-compliant brands to restore public trust and market balance

These steps, Junaid asserted, are vital to protect national revenue, ensure public health, and safeguard law-abiding businesses.

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