Pakistan’s agriculture sector has experienced a sharp slowdown, with growth plummeting to 1.1% in the second quarter of FY 2024-25, compared to 6.1% in the same period last year. Data from the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) and Topline Research reveals that major setbacks in cotton and maize production have significantly contributed to this decline.
Major Crops Under Pressure
A 31% drop in cotton production and a 15.4% decline in maize output have weakened the sector’s momentum. Climate change has reduced moisture levels, limiting cotton cultivation in Sindh to just two districts—Sanghar and Nawabshah. Experts predict that wheat production will face similar challenges later this year.
According to Miran Mohammed Shah, President of the Sindh Chamber of Agriculture, the government’s decision not to procure wheat and the absence of an official support price have left farmers struggling. Additionally, rising input costs and a lack of state intervention have made survival even harder.
Drought and Food Security Concerns
Sindh is currently facing a drought, and without substantial rainfall, Pakistan may have to import essential agricultural products, leading to a severe food security crisis. Despite slight growth in sugarcane and maize production, the overall GDP growth in 2QFY25 remains weak, primarily due to a 30% drop in cotton production.
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Declining Commodity Prices and Rising Costs
Farmers are also facing lower commodity prices despite higher production costs. Wheat, cotton, and sugarcane prices have dropped due to government regulations and export restrictions, while input prices continue to rise. The vegetable sector is also struggling due to weak demand, with crops like tomatoes, cabbage, and bitter melon fetching low prices.
Structural Issues and the Way Forward
Beyond external challenges, poor crop selection and limited rainfall have further impacted yields. Many farmers planted hybrid rice in central Punjab, expecting high yields similar to Sindh, but suffered losses due to unsuitable climatic conditions.
Experts stress the need for better crop planning, improved government policies, and investment in resilient farming techniques to ensure sustainable agricultural growth. Without immediate action, Pakistan’s agriculture sector faces a prolonged period of decline, threatening farmers’ livelihoods and national food security.
