In April 2025, Pakistan’s power generation surged to a 48-month high, reaching 10,513 GWh, according to data released by the National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA). This represents a 22% year-on-year (YoY) and 25% month-on-month (MoM) increase—marking a major milestone in the country’s energy landscape.
According to Arif Habib Limited (AHL), “Power generation in April’25 surged by 22% YoY, highest in 48 months, to 10,513 GWh.” This sharp increase coincided with the first positive Fuel Cost Adjustment (FCA) since June 2024, driven by higher electricity demand and a shift towards an expensive fuel mix.
Key Drivers Behind the Surge:
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Rising Temperatures: Increased cooling needs led to a spike in demand.
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Lower Grid Tariffs: Encouraged industrial users to switch from captive power plants to national grid electricity.
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Policy Changes: A new gas levy of Rs791/mmbtu raised captive generation costs to an estimated Rs42/kWh, making grid electricity (Rs28/kWh) more attractive.
Generation Mix Breakdown (April 2025):
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Hydel: 2,306 GWh (22%) — up 11% YoY
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RLNG: 2,157 GWh (21%) — up 42.1%
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Nuclear: 1,882 GWh (18%) — down 22.3%
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Local Coal: 1,540 GWh — up 59% YoY
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Wind + Solar: 9.2% combined — steady performance
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Residual Fuel Oil (RFO): Re-entered mix at Rs28.77/kWh
Fuel Cost Trends:
Despite an 8% YoY rise in fuel cost (Rs9.92/kWh), the average generation cost fell to Rs8.95/kWh, thanks to improved fuel mix efficiency and lower imported fuel use. Local and imported coal, though more expensive, replaced pricier imported fuels, moderating the cost burden.
Policy Implications:
The fuel mix shift led to Pakistan’s first positive FCA in 10 months, registering Rs1.27/kWh above the reference cost. Hydel and nuclear contributed to cost control, while RLNG and coal filled the demand gap.
This transformation highlights how climate conditions, policy interventions, and industrial economics are reshaping Pakistan’s energy dynamics. With rising demand and policy-induced cost adjustments, the power sector is entering a critical phase of efficiency optimization and fuel diversification.
