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PSX Inches Closer to All-Time High as IMF Support and Eased Tensions Drive Rally

The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) continued its upward momentum on Tuesday, with the KSE-100 Index recording significant gains amid improving geopolitical conditions and renewed investor confidence.

The benchmark KSE-100 Index surged 1,278 points (1.09%) to close at 118,576, following an intra-day high of 2,769 points—just shy of its all-time high of 120,796. This bullish performance was driven by optimism surrounding ceasefire talks between Pakistan and India and the finance minister’s assurance of minimal fiscal impact from recent tensions.

Investor sentiment was further lifted by the approval of $2.4 billion in IMF loans under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF). Additionally, rising global oil prices, rupee stability, and upbeat global equities contributed to the market’s strong performance.

Robust Institutional Buying

According to analysts at Topline Securities and Arif Habib Limited, the rally was powered by institutional buying, especially from mutual funds. Heavyweight stocks like Pakistan Petroleum (+10%), OGDC (+7.71%), Lucky Cement (+3.97%), PSO, and Mari Petroleum collectively contributed 1,177 points to the index.

While 51 stocks gained and 45 declined, some banking sector players like Bank AL Habib (-2.58%), MCB Bank (-2.27%), and UBL (-1.23%) dragged the index slightly.

Market Dynamics and Volumes

Trading activity remained solid with 684 million shares traded, valued at Rs53 billion—the highest in five months. Despite a slight drop from Monday’s volume (732.9 million shares), investor participation remained strong. Foreign investors also participated actively, making net purchases worth Rs386.8 million, according to the National Clearing Company.

The volume leaders included:

  • WorldCall Telecom: 41.7 million shares (↓ Rs0.06 to Rs1.26)

  • Maple Leaf Cement: 41.1 million shares (↑ Rs6.27 to Rs75.92)

  • Sui Southern Gas Company: 35.8 million shares (↑ Rs2.33 to Rs32.79)

Corporate Developments & Budget Expectations

Arif Habib Limited noted a 5:1 stock split announcement by Lucky Core Industries and hinted at government plans to reduce super tax for industries and salaried individuals in the upcoming 2025-26 federal budget—moves expected to improve market sentiment further.

Analyst Outlook

Muhammad Hasan Ather of JS Global emphasized that continued stability in geopolitical conditions and economic reforms are essential to sustaining this rally. The 120,000 level is now seen as a critical resistance, while the 113,000-115,000 range is expected to provide support in case of a pullback.

With three consecutive sessions of gains and market-friendly developments, all eyes are now on whether the PSX can break through its historical high of 120,796.

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