The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) staged a powerful comeback on Thursday, with the KSE-100 Index surging 1.2% or 1,425.39 points to close at a record 119,961.91, inching toward the psychological 120,000 barrier. The market not only erased Wednesday’s marginal dip but also surged to an all-time high, driven by a perfect storm of macroeconomic tailwinds.
Key Drivers of the Rally
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$1.02 billion IMF Tranche Received: The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) confirmed receipt of the second tranche under the IMF program, signaling renewed confidence in the government’s reform agenda.
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Bond Yields Plunge: A drop of up to 90 basis points in government bond yields further boosted equity attractiveness.
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Stable Rupee and Budget Optimism: The IMF’s projection of Rs20 trillion revenue collection and 3.6% GDP growth for FY2025-26 lifted sentiment ahead of the federal budget.
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Refinery Reforms in Progress: Government efforts to finalize a binding legal framework between OMCs and refineries—including “take-or-pay” clauses—aim to resolve long-standing supply chain disputes.
Sector-Wide Rally
Buying was broad-based, with capital flowing into:
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Cyclical stocks
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Commercial banks
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Energy firms
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Cement companies
These sectors tend to perform well amid signs of economic recovery and easing monetary policy.
According to Ahsan Mehanti, MD at Arif Habib Corp, the market’s strength was backed by macroeconomic improvements, IMF inflows, and a substantial decline in bond yields. He emphasized the stabilizing rupee and anticipation of a pro-growth budget as strong catalysts.
Institutional & Investor Activity
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Topline Securities reported a bullish shift driven by pre-budget optimism and IMF-related developments.
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Arif Habib Limited (AHL) observed that bulls regained momentum as the KSE-100 approached the 120,000 milestone.
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KTrade Securities noted improved investor sentiment amid reports of increased margins for OMCs and petroleum dealers, as proposed by the Petroleum Division.
Key Movers and Volume Leaders
Top Gainers:
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United Bank Limited (UBL): +3.13%
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Engro Holdings: +2.56%
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Hub Power Company (HUBCO): +2.49%
Top Losers:
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Lucky Cement: -1.03%
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Pakgen Power: -5.3%
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Nishat Mills: -3.14%
Volume Leaders:
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Pakistan Refinery Ltd – 50.8M shares (↑ Rs2.68 to Rs33.82)
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Cnergyico PK – 47.6M shares (↑ Rs0.48 to Rs7.85)
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K-Electric – 40.2M shares (↑ Rs0.16 to Rs4.45)
Despite the strong rally, foreign investors remained net sellers, offloading Rs1.11 billion worth of shares.
Market Breadth and Trading Metrics
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Total Volume: 699 million shares (vs. 609 million a day earlier)
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Value Traded: Rs39.1 billion
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Advancers: 312
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Decliners: 107
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Unchanged: 39
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Total Companies Traded: 458
Looking Ahead
With geopolitical tensions easing and macroeconomic indicators improving, the market outlook remains positive. The 120,000-point mark will serve as a critical psychological and technical resistance in the days ahead. All eyes are now on the upcoming federal budget and its alignment with IMF conditions.
